What is percentage-of-bankroll staking?

You stake a fixed percentage of your current bankroll on each bet (e.g. 2%). When your bankroll grows, your stakes increase; when it shrinks, stakes decrease. This prevents ruin but grows more slowly than Kelly in the long run.

What is Fibonacci staking?

Fibonacci staking increases stakes following the Fibonacci sequence (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…) after losses. Like Martingale, it suffers from exponential stake growth during losing streaks. It grows more slowly than Martingale but is equally prone to ruin.

Why does Kelly outperform flat staking with an edge?

Kelly allocates more capital to high-edge bets and less to low-edge bets, maximising the geometric growth rate of your bankroll. Flat staking ignores the edge size entirely, leaving potential growth on the table.

How many bets should I simulate?

Simulate at least 500 bets to see the strategies diverge clearly. Over 2,000 bets, the differences between strategies become very stark, particularly between the growth strategies and the loss-chasing strategies.

Staking Strategy Comparison Simulator

Number of Bets

Win Probability (%)

Decimal Odds

Starting Bankroll (£)

Simulations

Flat Stakes

Fixed £10 per bet regardless of bankroll

Percentage

2% of current bankroll per bet

Kelly Criterion

Mathematically optimal fraction

Martingale

Double stake after each loss

Fibonacci

Follow Fibonacci sequence after losses

Strategy	Median Final	Bust Rate	Best Case	Worst Case

Bankroll Comparison

Median bankroll trajectory for each strategy over time

Final Bankroll Spread

Range of outcomes per strategy: min, 25th, median, 75th, max percentiles

Bust Probability by Strategy

Percentage of simulations where the bankroll hit zero

How to Use This Simulator

Set Your Edge

Enter win probability, odds, and bankroll. A 55% win rate at 1.90 odds gives a genuine edge.

Run the Simulation

All 5 strategies are tested on the same sequence of wins and losses for fairness.

Compare Results

Check the comparison table, bankroll curves, and bust rates to find the optimal strategy.

The Math Behind It

How Each Strategy Works

Flat Stakes: Bet the same amount (£10) every time. Simple, predictable, but doesn't capitalise on bankroll growth. Expected growth is linear.

Percentage of Bankroll (2%): Bet 2% of your current bankroll each time. As you win, bets grow. As you lose, bets shrink — natural protection against ruin. You can never technically go bust (though the bankroll can become negligibly small).

Kelly Criterion: The formula is f* = (p × b - q) / b, where p = win probability, q = 1-p, b = net odds (decimal odds - 1). This maximises the expected logarithm of bankroll — giving the fastest long-term growth rate. But it's volatile.

Martingale: Double your stake after each loss. Produces many small wins but occasional catastrophic losses. Always results in bust given enough bets.

Fibonacci: After each loss, move to the next Fibonacci number (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13...) as a stake multiplier. After a win, move back two steps. Less aggressive than Martingale but still risky.

See Also: Dive deeper into the best-performing strategy with our Kelly Criterion Calculator or see why the worst performer fails in the Martingale Simulator.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Which staking strategy is best?

For bettors with a genuine edge, Kelly Criterion maximises long-term growth but with high volatility. Percentage staking (e.g., 2% of bankroll) offers a good balance of growth and safety. Flat staking is simplest but leaves growth on the table. Martingale and Fibonacci should be avoided.

What happens without an edge (50% at evens)?

Without an edge, all strategies lose in the long run due to the bookmaker's margin. Try setting win probability to 50% and odds to 1.90 — you'll see every strategy trends downward, just at different rates and volatilities.

Why does Kelly sometimes lose more than flat staking?

Kelly maximises long-term geometric growth but is volatile in the short term. A run of losses can significantly reduce the bankroll. Many professionals use "half Kelly" (half the recommended stake) for smoother results.

Can Martingale work with an edge?

Even with an edge, Martingale is suboptimal. It risks catastrophic loss for marginal gain. The simulation demonstrates this: Martingale has the highest bust rate regardless of edge, because the exponential stake growth eventually overwhelms any finite bankroll.

Staking Strategy Comparison