Which staking strategy is best?

For bettors with a genuine edge, Kelly Criterion or percentage-of-bankroll staking provide the best long-term growth. For casual bettors without a reliable edge, flat staking minimises losses. Martingale and Fibonacci are demonstrably the worst strategies and should be avoided.

What is percentage-of-bankroll staking?

You stake a fixed percentage of your current bankroll on each bet (e.g. 2%). When your bankroll grows, your stakes increase; when it shrinks, stakes decrease. This prevents ruin but grows more slowly than Kelly in the long run.

What is Fibonacci staking?

Fibonacci staking increases stakes following the Fibonacci sequence (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13…) after losses. Like Martingale, it suffers from exponential stake growth during losing streaks. It grows more slowly than Martingale but is equally prone to ruin.

Why does Kelly outperform flat staking with an edge?

Kelly allocates more capital to high-edge bets and less to low-edge bets, maximising the geometric growth rate of your bankroll. Flat staking ignores the edge size entirely, leaving potential growth on the table.

How many bets should I simulate?

Simulate at least 500 bets to see the strategies diverge clearly. Over 2,000 bets, the differences between strategies become very stark, particularly between the growth strategies and the loss-chasing strategies.